The Brewers-Rockies NLDS is one of the more interesting match-ups on the schedule so far this postseason. As recently as September 1st, both Colorado and Milwaukee were in third place in their respective divisions and a playoff berth was far from a sure thing for either team. Fast-forward a little over a month and the Brewers are the number one seed in the NL and are facing off against the Rockies, who just eliminated the team everybody expected to be in the Brewers spot.
There are many differences between these two teams that will certainly play a role throughout the series. The Rockies, for example, have the best starting rotation their franchise has ever seen with guys like German Marquez and Kyle Freeland having breakout years. The Brewers on the other hand, will be playing to their strengths and bullpenning Game 1. However, there is a key similarity that will likely lead to some exciting baseball and quite possibly expose the difference-maker for this match-up:
Both the Rockies and Brewers are very good when they get the ball in the air.
The Rockies rank second in wOBA on balls in play (doesn’t include HRs) with a launch angle of 10 degrees or more, at .352. The Brewers are not too far behind at .336. Of course, the Rockies will have benefited from playing 81 games at Coors Field this year, but as a portion of this series will take place at Coors, the number is still relevant.
The Brewers, on the other hand, have seen their results from fly balls hurt by Miller Park (.316 wOBA), but once on the road, that number skyrockets to .355, the highest mark in the majors. Granted, Milwaukee does have one of the lowest fly ball rates in the majors, but in their four game series in Colorado in May, 6 of the 14 fly balls they hit went for extra-bases.
Not only are both teams productive when hitting the ball in the air, when they elevate, they also tend to hit the ball far. The Rockies average distance on fly balls this year is 329 feet. Thats first in the majors. The Brewers average distance on fly balls this year is 326 feet. That’s second.
Now, why does this matter for this particular match-up?
Well, another difference between the Rockies and Brewers that is important to point out is the quality of their outfield defenses. According to Baseball Savant‘s Outs Above Average (OAA) metric, the Brewers have the best outfield defense in baseball, with 25 OAA overall. They’re led by centerfielder Lorenzo Cain’s 17 OAA, which ranks him third amongst individual outfielders. Remember how as a team, the Rockies hit the ball farther than anybody else? Well, it turns out that the Brewers outfield is exceptional at going back on the ball, with 9 of their total OAA resulting from plays over their heads. It appears as if the Brewers are well-equipped to combat this particular strength of the Rockies’ offense.
And now let’s take a look at Colorado’s outfield. As a team, they rank just 24th in the big leagues with an abysmal -13 OAA. The fantastic center field play the Brewers have benefitted from has been the weakness of the Rockies, with Charlie Blackmon posting a -9 OAA, the 10th worst individual mark. And forget about going back on the ball, Colorado outfielders have been terrible this year at running down anything hit over their head, with a -13 OAA while going back (-7 of which come from Blackmon).
As we prepare for what should be a competitive series between two intriguing teams, look for the Brewers to make an offensive impact in the air, while quite possibly creating a few highlight reel plays on the defensive side. Colorado, on the other hand, better hope their pitchers do everything they can to keep the ball on the ground.