The plan for lefty hitters on the Oakland Athletics in tonight’s AL Wild Card Game should be quite simple: get the ball in the air, in the direction of the right field seats. Of course the first reason in support of this strategy that will pop into your head is the notorious short porch of Yankee Stadium. And you’re right, the right field wall does have an impact.
But exactly how much of a difference could it make, and what other reasoning could there be? Let’s take a look:
Yesterday, it was announced that Luis Severino would start on the bump for the Yankees in the Wild Card Game for the second consecutive year. Severino had a horrendous outing in 2017, giving up three earned runs and recording just one lone out before being given the hook. The Yankee ace is seeking redemption this year, following a very productive season in which his 2.95 FIP ranks 6th in the AL among qualifiers, just behind this year’s Cy Young favorite Blake Snell.
Severino however, does have a glaring weakness.
Whenever a lefty is able to elevate a ball towards right field off of Severino, the results are disastrous. There have been 36 such cases so far this year, and Severino’s wOBA when this happens is a monstrous .988, up from a much more respectable .780 mark in 2017. When lefties have been able to get their barrel out in front of his blazing fastball, he has been absolutely punished. That .988 number? Yeah, that’s tied for the 13th worst in the majors this year (min. 25 results).
It’s likely that Severino has dealt with some bad luck this year, as his xwOBA in this scenario is just .740 – a difference of .248. This is where we can assume that pesky short porch makes the most impact, which is one reason why playing on the road in Yankee Stadium might not be the hand the A’s could have been dealt.
So, which A’s hitter looks to be able to take full advantage of this weakness?
First-baseman Matt Olson has pulled the ball in the air a total of 83 times on the season – the 9th most amongst all left-handed hitters. On those batted balls pulled in the air, Olson has a very strong .898 wOBA, highest amongst A’s lefties with at least 25 results, and 43rd in the MLB. As you can see below, the vast majority of Olson’s 29 home runs have been to the pull side. Which, even without the knowledge of Severino’s numbers, is a recipe for success when playing in Yankee Stadium.
If the Athletics are planning on a repeat of the 2017 Wild Card game and a big offensive showing, they’re going to have to prey on Severino’s weaknesses. Their lefty bats such as Olson and Jed Lowrie will have to swing early and often, and with the intent to do damage. If they succeed in doing this, it just might ruin every Yankee fan’s day.